Topic: Next Nintendo Direct?

@PikminMarioKirby
I get the logic behind it, it's just that it seems like every time people use investor stuff to predict Nintendo they end up being wrong.

@Sigran102 I'm not claiming with 100% certainty that we'll get anything out of the investor meeting necessarily. Nintendo's gonna do what Nintendo's gonna do, whether we like it or not. The point I'm trying to get at is, everyone and their grandma is talking about the Switch 2 leaks and rumors. I highly doubt most people there are going to ask about the current Switch's future, given how quiet things have been and just how many leaks and rumors have been coming out. If Nintendo doesn't want to step on the toes of their investors and get everyone in a sour mood, they'd at least humor the discussion about Switch 2 so they can ease some of the tension about next-gen before it snaps. We might be patient about waiting for next-gen, but investors are picky. There's only so much silence and feigning ignorance they can take before they grow impatient and take their money elsewhere. Nintendo can only play that game for so long before it comes back to bite them. (Maybe I'm wrong about all of this, and they'll use that leaked World Championship game as a distraction, even though in the grand scheme of things it sounds like a smaller game. But I sincerely doubt that'd be enough to appease the investors.)

Do we know the exact time the financial meeting is released on the website? Just curious.

Also keep in mind, we could also get an update later the same day (at least in some regions). I remember one time when the financial meeting happened and then they had another section released just several hours later announcing the Zelda movie (at least from my memory). We could be seeing something like this, however it is obviously not a guarantee.

@PikminMarioKirby I mean... it's Japanese time. So... the day before or middle of the night?

@FishyS Oh okay, I would guess it’s be pretty late/early for some timezones. Do you think it’d be at exact midnight in Japan? For some reason I feel like it isn’t, but I could be wrong.

@PikminMarioKirby I just meant that Japanese daytime meeting May 7 probably means evening/night May 6 for a lot of the world. In the February meeting there was tons of news about it in the morning, but not sure precisely when they started (I was probably asleep). I am sure on May 7th daytime for NA/EU there will be plenty of articles about it.

@FishyS Oh wait that makes sense, not sure exactly how the meetings work but that makes more sense. I feel like usually articles appear around the morning for the meetings in most time zones, so I’d assume that’s likely the case this time as well. I’ll just have to check that day when I’m able!

@FishyS @PikminMarioKirby
I find it amusing when Americans are discussing timezones for Nintendo stuff that's Japan focused. Usually most announcements are centred around the US which means Japan and Australia get shafted. These days I seem to get Directs at either 10PM or 6AM which, given I'm an hour behind Japan, means they're getting it at 11PM or 7AM. Which is ok. But back in the day the number of E3 press conferences that were at like 1AM Perth time

Anyways, just an observation. Must me nice for timezone shenanigans to be the exception rather than the rule

@skywake Ironically, I would love it if directs were 11 pm or even 1 am.. Instead, they are usually smack dab during the work day and I typically don't get to watch them until 6-8 hours later. Note that for the younger folk in my time zone they are of course at school so also can't watch it.

I would prefer a little sleep deprivation to not getting to watch it live at all which has been the case almost every time in recent years.

@skywake @FishyS Speaking from US times, I prefer directs later in the afternoon. I love directs, but I do not love dragging myself up at the crack of dawn and feeling groggy throughout the whole thing. I know I could just watch it after the fact, but it's always more fun watching the stream with the rest of the world and being part of the moment. It's always fun seeing my feed blow up when there's a huge reveal for the "One more thing." (Especially in the case of something like Steve in Smash when a huge part of the internet quite literally blows up.)

Latest vid from Nintendo Forecast on the potential announcement strategy for Switch 2. This guy's generally pretty good. I would guess that he's some sort of business major, not sure. But he's certainly better than the average talking head who rambles on for an hour about some post they saw on Reddit:

Anyways, to save you the watch he's putting an announcement of new hardware before the end of June at 30%. With the justification being that the Switch is still traveling relatively well and Nintendo is generally in a good spot. Meaning they don't really need to pull out the stops to calm investors. And also that this new hardware, as it is rumoured, seems fairly iterative and self explanatory. And if that's the case there's less need to have a long lead in to get consumers used to a wild and wacky concept

His view is that the main factors for the timing of an announcement is more to do with how it relates to contract negotiation. Nintendo would want to keep their cards close to their chest so they can better negotiate contracts for component acquisition. But inevitably talking risks leaks and they want to control messaging. So the deadline is more to do with when contracts are signed and things start to ramp up more than it is keeping investors happy.....

Basically, wiser people than me seem to think that the AGM more probably than not won't be the opening of the floodgates for Switch 2. So I'm more than happy to buy into that theory at this time

@skywake Thanks for the link. It's refreshing to hear a Youtuber creating actual content instead of turning a tweet or a post into a 12 minute ramble about nothing. He doesn't purport himself to be an authority on Switch 2 speculation or anything, but at least his research carries more weight than the opinion of someone sat down all day reading gossip. I'm not expecting an announcement soon (and by God has the word 'soon' lost all meaning in the Switch 2 speculation bubble lol) but like usual, if they have a tact or a strategy to do so (e.g. promote Switch software sales or something in the lead up) then as usual with Nintendo, I'll have to doff my cap to them. All I know is, the Switch 2 will be Nintendo's flagship console and it's announcement needs to shift everyone over to that and and kill Switch 1 sales lol (I don't believe manufacturing 4+ different consoles going forward is particularly desirable lol) I've said it before, I'll happily say it again, I'm bloody glad I'm not the CEO. If it's a smooth transition, then that fella has earned his money!

Y’all see a Nintendo World Championship game got rated right after the Pyoro tease?? My guess is it’ll be randomly revealed on its own before the investor meeting similar to Everybody 1-2 Switch last year, then we’ll get a late June direct also like last year to reveal the (still relatively quiet) remainder of the 2024 slate followed by the switch 2 reveal later this year.

@GrailUK
I'm still of the view that people put too much emphasis on the importance of the OG Switch sales through this transition. In particular the idea that Nintendo needs to somehow be concerned about how a Switch 2 reveal will hurt their immediate bottom line

Of course, logically, a decline in Switch sales on its own will hurt Nintendo and the Switch 2 will be the biggest source of that decline. But platform decline is, generally, as a result of people moving on from a platform. Generally to some other platform. If that other platform is the Switch 2 then there isn't a problem

So the real question isn't how the timing of the announcement will impact Switch sales. The question should be what is Nintendo going to do to convince existing Switch owners that their next platform is the Switch 2. And the way a lot of platforms do that is by saying "look at all this stuff you have built up! If you move you'll lose it!"

I know I'm a bit of a broken record on this thought but I do generally think that the most important thing Nintendo needs to get right is cross-generational releases, backwards compatibility and the handling of NSO. Switch 2 shouldn't feel like a new platform. It should feel like a better version of the existing platform that you just seamlessly move into and all of your favourite games are right where you left them

@skywake Yeah, I get ya. I dare say the day one Switch folk will be there day one for Switch 2. If their first year output is anywhere near Switch's then the console will sell itself lol.

@skywake So are they suggesting that the 3DS reveal in March 2010 was a result of DS/Wii decline rather than needing to tell shareholders that it was releasing by the end of March 2011?

I can't wait for the Switch 2 reveal in June when we see it has dual screens!!!!!
mwahahaah

@Grumblevolcano
I think the argument was more that the 3DS reveal being as early as it was due to the 3D being an odd concept. Which I don't really agree with. But also that the global financial situation at the time meant they wanted to calm investors which is why they did it before the end of their financial year. Which makes sense

Fairly sure he also mentioned that the gaming media cycle wasn't nearly as fast as it is now. Which is probably a fair call also. I think these days you could announce a game and have it out that day and nobody would bat an eye. Ten years ago we obviously had social media and YouTube but the gaming new cycle was still fairly slow compared to now

I think the missing piece of the puzzle is that there were also leaks about it starting to flow at that time. Which is probably the actual reason that triggered the announcement in that way at that time

So it looks like @Bolt_Strike was both right AND wrong. Nintendo confirmed they will announce the Switch successor this fiscal year, and that there will be a general Direct in June focused on Switch 1 software (no Switch 2 games).

He was wrong about there being no Direct anytime soon, but it looks like he's right about the Switch 2 reveal likely being this fall. I think he has the general timeline pretty spot on.

Absolutely over the moon that we have the confirmation of a June Direct, though I'm also absolutely terrified it'll arrive during the middle of my summer exams. Please be after the 21st, I'm begging ya!!! XD